No on Iran leadership change by September 30?
— 151.975615 @ 0.987
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VB
vbcbf646
All-time PnL
-$241.31
Win rate
92.2%
51 of 55
Total trades
55
Avg PnL / trade
-$4.73
30d PnL
$7.71
30d trades
6
30d wins
4
66.7%
30d volume
$841.00
Category edge
World
84.6%
+37.2pp
n=13
Economy
100.0%
+33.3pp
n=5
Politics
70.0%
+30.0pp
n=10
Crypto
93.8%
+25.2pp
n=16
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
88.7% (47 wins / 6 misses)Cumulative PnL · 36-day series
$0.00
-$273.65
Trading pattern
Diversifiedbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · Crypto 29%
Why Diversifiedhigh confidence · 55 trades
Category focus: Crypto 29% of categorized trades — spread across many categories (<35% in any one) → diversified.
Directional bias: +1.00 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.93 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $150 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.56 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 93¢ · 55 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $150.00 · p90 $292.00
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 06:00 · 55 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
— 136.595263 @ 0.981
No on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$1.21 · 151.209625 @ 0.992
Yes on Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
— +$2.44 · 135.437833 @ 0.982
No on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
— +$1.00 · 125 @ 0.992
No on Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
— +$3.06 · 153.061223 @ 0.980
No on Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
— +$0.56 · 80.563857 @ 0.993
No on Trump out as President by July 31?
— +$1.21 · 201.207166 @ 0.994
No on Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?
— +$1.69 · 241.691714 @ 0.993
No on Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
— +$1.34 · 71.343333 @ 0.981
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
— +$3.67 · 203.665944 @ 0.982
No on US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
— +$1.70 · 61.703111 @ 0.972
No on Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
— +$3.25 · 203.252 @ 0.984
No on US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
— +$2.77 · 102.774888 @ 0.973
No on Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
— +$2.88 · 102.880642 @ 0.972
No on Iran leadership change by April 30?
— +$5.55 · 205.549844 @ 0.973
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?
— +$2.54 · 169.176933 @ 0.985
No on US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
— -$144.00 · 149.222771 @ 0.965
No on Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?
— +$2.00 · 221.996994 @ 0.991
Yes on Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?
— +$8.50 · 212.5 @ 0.960
No on Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
— +$3.99 · 104.989578 @ 0.962
No on US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
— +$0.86 · 213.85525 @ 0.996
No on Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on February 6, 2026?
— +$0.48 · 96.4824 @ 0.995
No on Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?
— +$1.84 · 306.841045 @ 0.994
No on Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 4?
— +$1.18 · 296.1845 @ 0.996
No on Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026?
— +$0.40 · 13.402033 @ 0.970
Yes on Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
— +$5.22 · 307.222786 @ 0.983
No on Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?
— +$0.45 · 172.452 @ 0.997
No on Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
— +$0.60 · 120.603 @ 0.995
No on Will Meta reach $960 in November?
— +$1.51 · 301.507536 @ 0.995
Yes on Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of November 10 above $480?
— +$2.35 · 294.35475 @ 0.992
No on Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 13?
— +$1.55 · 221.550714 @ 0.993
No on Will "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 4m?
— +$0.19 · 64.192333 @ 0.997
No on Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?
— +$0.35 · 177.3545 @ 0.998
No on Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September?
— +$0.22 · 110.22 @ 0.998
Yes on Solana above $150 on August 29?
— +$0.30 · 300.3 @ 0.999
No on Will Ethereum dip to $3700 August 11–17?
— +$1.01 · 201.005 @ 0.995
No on Solana above $220 on August 15?
— +$0.73 · 90.72575 @ 0.992
No on Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July?
— +$1.76 · 251.762285 @ 0.993
No on Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
— +$0.70 · 232.698 @ 0.997
No on Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
— +$0.59 · 45.592692 @ 0.987
No on Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May?
— +$1.00 · 248.99575 @ 0.996
No on Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
— +$0.15 · 77.154 @ 0.998
No on X allowed to operate in China before May?
— +$0.16 · 80.16 @ 0.998
No on Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?
— +$0.39 · 130.391 @ 0.997
No on Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
— +$0.54 · 270.541 @ 0.998
No on Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday?
— +$0.49 · 244.4885 @ 0.998
No on Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025?
— +$1.49 · 247.635666 @ 0.994
Yes on Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?
— -$30.00 · 46.153845 @ 0.650
Yes on Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
— -$28.00 · 66.666665 @ 0.420
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.