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Glossary

The terms used across edgewatch, in plain language. edgewatch is an analytics layer over public Polymarket data — it places no trades and holds no funds.

Information only — not financial advice (NFA).

Tracked (curated) traders: The set of Polymarket wallets edgewatch follows. Curated by risk-adjusted track record and re-ranked nightly — not a pay-to-list directory. We surface their publicly observable on-chain activity; we don’t manage money for anyone.
Automated evaluator: A rules-based engine that scores each tracked trade against the live market — entry price vs. current price, size, recency — and assigns a verdict. It’s an analytics layer over public data: it places no trades, holds no funds, and connects no wallet.
Verdict — copied / rejected / skipped: The evaluator’s call on a tracked trade. Copied — the entry still clears the engine’s risk bounds (price within band, adequate size). Rejected — the price has drifted beyond the max-slippage band, so the entry is no longer actionable. Skipped — below the engine’s conviction threshold. Verdicts are conclusions about publicly observable activity, not advice.
Actionable entry: An entry a follower could realistically still take at a similar price — i.e. the market hasn’t moved beyond the engine’s slippage band since the tracked trader acted.
Signal: A single item in the live feed — a tracked trade with its verdict, a consensus sweep, or a basket-arb edge. Each carries its decision context and a reason.
Edge: A measurable advantage observable in public data — e.g. a basket-arb gap, or a tracked-trader entry below the current market price. edgewatch reports edges; it doesn’t promise outcomes.
Basket arbitrage (basket-arb): On a multi-outcome market, when the outcome prices sum to less than $1, buying the whole basket pays out exactly $1 — a structural, riskless edge. edgewatch surfaces these from public market prices.
High-conviction sweep: When two or more independent tracked traders take the same side of the same market within a short window, edgewatch collapses them into one signal instead of a stream of separate rows — surfacing agreement, not noise.
Consensus: Observed cohort positioning — markets where multiple tracked traders hold the same outcome. It reflects where the tracked cohort agrees, not full-market depth.
NFA — not financial advice: Everything on edgewatch is information about public market activity, scored by an automated evaluator. It is not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer. Prediction markets are speculative — do your own research.
Wash trading: Wash trading occurs when a wallet — or a cluster of coordinated wallets — trades with itself to inflate apparent volume or create a misleading price signal. On prediction markets the tactic can nudge a contract's implied probability without genuine belief behind the order flow. It artificially inflates perceived liquidity and can lead other participants to mis-price risk. edgewatch's analytics engine flags statistically anomalous round-trip volume patterns as part of its integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. See live examples →
Order book spoofing: Spoofing involves placing large visible orders with no intention of letting them fill — the orders are cancelled once the price moves in the desired direction. On a thin prediction-market order book even a modest spoof can shift the displayed best bid/ask enough to trigger other participants' limit orders or erode their confidence in the market's true probability. edgewatch surfaces anomalous order-cancellation patterns that are consistent with spoofing activity as part of its integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. Read the full guide →
Pump and dump: A pump-and-dump scheme involves accumulating a position, then artificially driving the contract price upward through coordinated buying before exiting into the inflated demand. On prediction markets the "dump" phase typically involves selling YES shares at a peak implied probability that has little grounding in the underlying event's actual odds. edgewatch tracks wallet accumulation and rapid exit sequences as part of its integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. See live examples →
Bait-and-exit: Bait-and-exit refers to a wallet establishing a visible high-conviction position to attract copy-traders, then quietly unwinding or reversing before the market resolves. The originating wallet profits from the liquidity provided by followers who arrived after the initial signal. It is especially relevant on prediction platforms where wallet activity is public and follower dynamics are well-known. edgewatch's integrity signals include rapid position reversal relative to wallet broadcast activity — see the integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. See live examples →
Shadow wallet / Sybil fragmentation: Sybil fragmentation splits economic exposure across many wallets that appear unrelated, so no single address breaches position-size limits or triggers anomaly thresholds. On Polymarket a controller can operate dozens of funded wallets that each look like independent participants. edgewatch's cross-wallet heuristics detect funding lineage, on-chain timing correlations, and shared bet patterns characteristic of Sybil clusters — see the integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. Read the full guide →
Coordinated wallet clustering: Coordinated wallet clustering describes a group of wallets that act in near-perfect synchrony — entering the same outcome within seconds, using similar sizes, and exiting together — without any observable public coordination. When the aggregate position is large enough, the coordinated entry itself moves the market. edgewatch surfaces synchrony scores and shared-entry windows as part of its integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. Read the full guide →
Round-trip exploitation: Round-trip exploitation involves a wallet buying an outcome and then profiting on the close after influencing the resolution environment through information asymmetry or coordinated pressure. On prediction markets the "trip" is closed by market resolution rather than a counter-trade, making it harder to spot via order-flow analysis alone. edgewatch maps resolution outcomes back to pre-resolution wallet behaviour to identify statistically improbable win sequences — see the integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. See live examples →
Abnormal win rate: An abnormal win rate is a wallet's resolved-market track record that sits far outside what chance or skill alone would predict — sustained accuracy across many independent markets at odds that imply a near-zero luck component. On prediction markets this can indicate information advantages that border on insider knowledge, or coordinated resolution influence. edgewatch scores each tracked wallet's win-rate distribution against a statistical baseline and flags outliers as part of its integrity layer. These are analytical observations, not accusations. See live examples →

More on how this works: methodology · how the copy engine works · integrity layer.