How traders get on the board.
Curation is algorithmic and transparent. The featured trader set is the foundation everything else — signals, alerts, shadow portfolios — sits on, so it has to be defensible against gaming claims and stable enough that you can build trust around it. The automated evaluator that produces signal verdicts only ever runs against traders on this list.
Inclusion criteria
all of the following must hold for an address to be featured
- ≥ 90 days of on-chain trade history on Polymarket
- ≥ 50 trades in the lookback window
- ≥ $25k cumulative notional volume in the window
- Max single-trade contribution to PnL ≤ 35% (anti-lottery filter)
- Max drawdown ≤ 50% within the window
- Light Sybil heuristic: address must not share a funding source with another already-featured trader
Ranking
Traders are ranked by 30-day risk-adjusted PnL — a Sharpe-like ratio of daily returns to their volatility, with cumulative volume as the tiebreaker. The board re-ranks nightly. PnL alone would reward lottery winners; volume alone would reward bots; the two together reward consistency.
Delisting
A featured trader is removed within 24 hours of any of the following:
- Manipulation evidence (wash trading, coordinated pump, market abuse)
- Behaviour incompatible with Polymarket terms of service
- Trader request — written ask, no questions asked
Signals and how they are derived
A signal is a single item in the live feed — it may be a tracked trade with its evaluator verdict, a high-conviction sweep, or a basket-arb edge.
Sweeps are detected when two or more independent tracked traders enter the same side of the same market within a short window. Instead of emitting a row per trade, edgewatch collapses them into one consensus signal — surfacing cohort agreement, not individual noise.
Basket-arb edges are structural: when outcome prices on a multi-outcome market sum to less than $1, buying every outcome guarantees a $1 payout — a mechanical, price-driven edge with no directional bet required. edgewatch reports the gap size and whether it still clears fees at detection time.
What the edge stat means — and its limits
The edge score on a signal is the evaluator's best estimate of entry quality at the moment of detection: how far the entry price is from the current market price, adjusted for the tracked trader's recent accuracy on similar markets.
It is not a probability of profit, not a prediction of market resolution, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Prediction markets are highly liquid and prices converge fast — an edge visible at detection can vanish in seconds. Always check current market prices before acting on any signal.
What this is not
A ranking on this board is not an endorsement. Past performance — including risk-adjusted past performance — does not predict future results. The board is a starting point for your own investigation, never a recommendation. See the full disclaimer.
Everything on edgewatch is information about publicly observable on-chain activity, scored by an automated evaluator. None of it is financial advice, a trading recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any asset. Prediction markets are speculative — you can lose what you put in. Do your own research. See the full disclaimer.
Spotted a trader you think should be added or removed? The methodology is fixed but the inputs aren’t perfect — we’re listening. Flag it via the contact link.