Arb monitor
We watch negRisk basket arbitrage across Polymarket continuously and surface a riskless edge the instant one appears. Most of the time there are none — here’s the honest live state.
Monitoring / informational · top-of-book · not financial advice.
What this monitors
On a negRisk basket (a market with several mutually-exclusive outcomes), the “Yes” asks should sum to about $1. If they ever sum to less than $1, buying one share of every outcome costs under a dollar but pays out exactly $1 — a riskless edge.
In practice the order book almost always prices this out by ~the spread — the tightest complete basket right now sums to 100.9¢, just over $1. That’s expected; a standing sub-$1 basket would be taken instantly. The value here is the continuous watch, not a promise of arbs.