Yes on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 3166.99 @ 0.046
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GR
grinder1011
All-time PnL
-$16.52
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$29.24
30d PnL
-$29.24
30d trades
100
30d wins
0
0.0%
30d volume
$5.72k
Category edge
Economy
0.0%
-38.1pp
n=5
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
0.0% (0 wins / 5 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 4 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 1-day series
Not enough data to chart yet.
Trading pattern
Economy-Leaningbuy-heavysmall-sizeBuy-leaning · Economy 41%
Why Economy-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Economy 41% of categorized trades — a lean toward Economy without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.80 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.34 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $14 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 2.07 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 34¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $14.29 · p90 $109.20
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Thu 15:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 2195 @ 0.043
Yes on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 132.1 @ 0.043
Yes on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 504.97 @ 0.043
Yes on Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
— 187.24 @ 0.101
Yes on Will Mike Starchuk win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?
— 66.01 @ 0.005
Yes on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
— 200 @ 0.080
Yes on Will Dee Valladares come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?
— 137.4 @ 0.303
Yes on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
— 216.61 @ 0.080
No on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
— 838.17 @ 0.050
Yes on Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?
— 26.87 @ 0.220
No on Blue tsunami in 2026?
— 53 @ 0.470
No on Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?
— 5 @ 0.770
Yes on Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 602.37 @ 0.001
No on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
— 2649.17 @ 0.030
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?
— 25.5 @ 0.110
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in September?
— 25.5 @ 0.016
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in September?
— 25.5 @ 0.004
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in September?
— 25.5 @ 0.004
No on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 21 @ 0.130
Yes on Will Melody Morris come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?
— 17 @ 0.333
No on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?
— 20 @ 0.910
No on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
— 20 @ 0.680
No on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
— 99.99 @ 0.680
No on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 200 @ 0.130
Yes on Will Taylor Brown come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?
— 23.86 @ 0.102
Yes on Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?
— 10 @ 0.400
No on Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 9.99 @ 0.988
No on Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?
— 15 @ 0.920
No on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 200 @ 0.130
No on Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
— 500 @ 0.929
No on Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
— 500 @ 0.929
No on Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?
— 15 @ 0.740
No on Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
— 500 @ 0.934
Yes on Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
— 160 @ 0.072
Yes on Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
— -$5.18 · 2587.69 @ 0.002
No on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
— 30 @ 0.680
Yes on Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?
— 10.44 @ 0.060
Yes on Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?
— 50 @ 0.003
Yes on Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 88.32 @ 0.007
Yes on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
— 121 @ 0.100
No on Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?
— 50 @ 0.978
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in September?
— 20 @ 0.017
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in September?
— 20 @ 0.026
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in September?
— 20 @ 0.028
Yes on Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?
— 20 @ 0.070
Yes on Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 33.33 @ 0.006
Yes on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in September?
— 130 @ 0.100
Yes on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?
— 130 @ 0.157
Yes on Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?
— 130 @ 0.337
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.