No on Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
— 455 @ 0.963
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CA
Cardwell
All-time PnL
$144.24
Win rate
100.0%
22 of 22
Total trades
22
Avg PnL / trade
$12.02
30d PnL
$0.00
30d trades
3
30d wins
0
0.0%
30d volume
$1.30k
Category edge
Sports
100.0%
+50.9pp
n=6
World
100.0%
+37.0pp
n=8
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
100.0% (14 wins / 0 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 1 market — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 8-day series
$178.19
$0.00
Trading pattern
World Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backercategory-focusedBuy-leaning · World 73%
Why World Specialistmedium confidence · 22 trades
Category focus: World 73% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a World specialist.
Directional bias: +0.64 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.72 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $355 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.60 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
⚠ Based on 22 trades — a moderate sample.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 72¢ · 22 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $354.87 · p90 $481.95
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Wed 05:00 · 22 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
— 462 @ 0.952
No on Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?
— 445 @ 0.940
Yes on Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
— 510 @ 0.051
Yes on Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
— 500 @ 0.051
Yes on Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
— 500 @ 0.050
Yes on Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
— 510 @ 0.050
Dalian Yingbo FC on Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)
— +$28.05 · 510 @ 0.945
No on Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
— +$24.75 · 505 @ 0.951
Chengdu Rongcheng FC on Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)
— +$9.90 · 495 @ 0.980
No on Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
— +$14.00 · 500 @ 0.972
Yes on Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?
— +$17.29 · 493.99 @ 0.035
Yes on Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?
— +$17.68 · 505 @ 0.035
Randers FC on Spread: Odense BK (-2.5)
— +$21.00 · 499.99 @ 0.958
No on Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
— +$13.72 · 490 @ 0.972
FC Midtjylland on Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)
— +$7.97 · 379.5212 @ 0.979
No on Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
— +$8.58 · 390 @ 0.978
Cruzeiro EC on Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-2.5)
— +$1.70 · 339.898 @ 0.995
No on Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?
— 345 @ 0.973
No on Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
— +$5.85 · 325 @ 0.982
Olympique de Marseille on Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)
— +$3.39 · 307.79672 @ 0.989
No on Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
— +$4.33 · 309 @ 0.986
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.