No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 22?
— 19.58 @ 0.970
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CI
cigarettes
All-time PnL
$0.00
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$0.00
30d PnL
$0.00
30d trades
100
30d wins
0
0.0%
30d volume
$2.24k
Trading pattern
Politics-Leaningbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · Politics 48%
Why Politics-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Politics 48% of categorized trades — a lean toward Politics without full specialization.
Directional bias: +1.00 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.87 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $18 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.69 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 87¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $18.20 · p90 $39.60
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 10:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 22?
— 19.58 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 22?
— 19.58 @ 0.370
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 22?
— 19.58 @ 0.860
No on Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on September 21?
— 12.24 @ 0.980
No on Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 21?
— 12.24 @ 0.810
No on Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21?
— 12.24 @ 0.690
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.620
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.850
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on September 22?
— 8.34 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on September 20?
— 11.43 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 20?
— 20 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 20?
— 20 @ 0.910
No on Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on September 20?
— 20 @ 0.510
No on Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
— 92 @ 0.540
No on Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 80 @ 0.999
No on Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 31.57 @ 0.990
No on Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 80 @ 0.999
No on Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 80 @ 0.999
No on Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 80 @ 0.996
No on Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 12.28 @ 0.999
No on Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
— 10 @ 0.290
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 5%-15%?
— 20 @ 0.939
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 15%-20%?
— 20 @ 0.920
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 40%-45%?
— 20 @ 0.937
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 20%-25%?
— 20 @ 0.910
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 35%-40%?
— 20 @ 0.860
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 45% or more?
— 20 @ 0.989
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 30%-35%?
— 20 @ 0.820
No on Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 0%-5%?
— 20 @ 0.930
No on Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.970
No on Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.996
No on Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.999
No on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.300
No on Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.999
No on Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.997
No on Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.996
No on Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.994
No on Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.900
No on Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.997
No on Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.920
No on Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.994
No on Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
— 17 @ 0.999
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 22?
— 40 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on September 22?
— 40 @ 0.850
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 22?
— 40 @ 0.850
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 22?
— 40 @ 0.370
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.