Yes on Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
— 1358.39 @ 0.997
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SO
SoftFlame05
All-time PnL
$5.48k
Win rate
43.9%
44 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$82.96
30d PnL
$5.83k
30d trades
84
30d wins
27
32.1%
30d volume
$25.6k
Category edge
Crypto
14.3%
-35.8pp
n=7
Politics
17.6%
-19.5pp
n=17
World
60.0%
+8.4pp
n=40
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
43.9% (29 wins / 37 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 17 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 11-day series
$5.48k
-$356.87
Trading pattern
World Specialisttwo-sidedsmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · World 71%
Why World Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: World 71% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a World specialist.
Directional bias: +0.22 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.50 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $100 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.81 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 50¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $100.28 · p90 $532.36
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 21:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
— 408.91 @ 0.600
Yes on Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
— 447.761193 @ 0.670
No on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
— 408.914704 @ 0.489
Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?
— 315.54 @ 0.010
No on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
— 609.19 @ 0.998
Yes on Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
— 167.18 @ 0.104
Yes on Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
— 445.666665 @ 0.898
No on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
— 693.84255 @ 0.216
Yes on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
— 214.550691 @ 0.699
Yes on Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
— 253.164552 @ 0.790
Yes on Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
— 5471.57 @ 0.073
No on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
— 206.38 @ 0.993
No on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
— 402.819714 @ 0.993
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
— 163.90625 @ 0.064
No on Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?
— -$1.90 · 1900 @ 0.001
Yes on Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?
— +$9.05 · 122.363303 @ 0.926
Yes on Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
— -$10.34 · 124.07 @ 0.917
Yes on Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
— +$17.97 · 118.254715 @ 0.848
No on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
— 169.96 @ 0.590
Yes on Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
— 3471.574755 @ 0.164
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 2981.64 @ 0.113
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 441.79 @ 0.118
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 203.25 @ 0.121
No on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
— 81.150942 @ 0.530
Yes on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
— 136.28 @ 0.490
No on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
— 169.96 @ 0.500
No on Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
— 207 @ 0.740
No on Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
— 23 @ 0.730
Yes on Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
— 1621.2 @ 0.050
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 500 @ 0.162
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 324.02857 @ 0.698
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 3544.03 @ 0.778
Yes on Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
— 258.624677 @ 0.773
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— +$3.26k · 22023.17 @ 0.148
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— -$65.54 · 137.77 @ 0.476
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— -$48.96 · 109.029935 @ 0.449
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— -$44.37 · 100.43 @ 0.442
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— -$63.55 · 138.28 @ 0.460
No on Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
— -$127.15 · 871.34 @ 0.146
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$21.50 · 500 @ 0.957
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$10.77 · 251 @ 0.957
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$12.05 · 294.14 @ 0.959
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$9.94 · 250 @ 0.960
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$55.79 · 1592.290154 @ 0.965
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$11.68 · 238.29 @ 0.951
No on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— +$8.57 · 2142.85 @ 0.004
No on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— -$15.00 · 2142.857141 @ 0.007
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$1.01 · 20 @ 0.950
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$96.91 · 629.27 @ 0.846
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.