No on Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 102 @ 0.880
← leaderboard
LE
lexet
All-time PnL
$34.49
Win rate
66.7%
67 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$1.90
30d PnL
$89.23
30d trades
98
30d wins
26
26.5%
30d volume
$5.52k
Category edge
Sports
66.7%
+15.7pp
n=6
Politics
69.2%
-12.6pp
n=13
World
56.3%
-8.8pp
n=16
Science & Tech
71.4%
-7.1pp
n=7
Crypto
53.8%
+3.9pp
n=13
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
61.7% (37 wins / 23 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 18 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 18-day series
$109.50
-$96.32
Trading pattern
Diversifiedtwo-sidedsmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · Politics 30%
Why Diversifiedhigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Politics 30% of categorized trades — spread across many categories (<35% in any one) → diversified.
Directional bias: +0.44 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.80 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $60 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.52 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 80¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $60.04 · p90 $89.28
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 09:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?
— 131 @ 0.760
Yes on Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?
— 93 @ 0.910
Yes on Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
— 15 @ 0.830
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 96 @ 0.880
No on Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?
— 36.51 @ 0.768
No on Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
— 80 @ 0.930
No on Will MOUZ Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?
— 82 @ 0.850
Yes on Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16?
— 10 @ 0.400
Yes on Will Levante UD vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
— 10 @ 0.290
Yes on Will Levante UD win on 2026-09-16?
— 10 @ 0.300
Yes on Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
— 67 @ 0.836
No on US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
— 107 @ 0.790
No on US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
— 17 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
— 89 @ 0.700
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September?
— -$4.44 · 8.07 @ 0.450
No on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$21.09 · 111 @ 0.810
No on Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 91 @ 0.733
No on Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?
— +$11.36 · 71 @ 0.840
No on Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
— 65 @ 0.910
Yes on US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
— +$29.67 · 129 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 97 @ 0.820
No on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
— 44.99 @ 0.927
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September?
— +$10.20 · 60 @ 0.830
Yes on Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?
— -$31.28 · 92 @ 0.660
Yes on Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
— +$19.32 · 84 @ 0.770
Yes on Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— -$17.77 · 21.16 @ 0.840
No on Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 7-13?
— +$12.40 · 62 @ 0.800
Yes on Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
— 97 @ 0.870
No on Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
— +$61.34 · 96 @ 0.639
Yes on Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?
— +$22.08 · 92 @ 0.760
Yes on Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 55.99 @ 0.790
No on Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
— 93 @ 0.860
Yes on LAPTOP airdrop by September 9?
— +$14.06 · 74 @ 0.810
Yes on Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
— +$13.56 · 113 @ 0.880
No on Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
— +$16.72 · 76 @ 0.780
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— +$11.19 · 53.29 @ 0.790
No on Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
— 69.158984 @ 0.868
Yes on Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 98 @ 0.770
No on Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
— 30 @ 0.690
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?
— +$16.32 · 96 @ 0.830
Yes on Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
— 89 @ 0.780
No on Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
— 77.426382 @ 0.776
No on US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
— 17 @ 0.890
No on Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
— 95 @ 0.840
No on Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?
— -$60.30 · 67.420133 @ 0.894
Yes on Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?
— 102 @ 0.690
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
— 85 @ 0.900
Yes on Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
— 98 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?
— 102 @ 0.830
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.