Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 2652.27 @ 0.638
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LO
LongAndWindingRoad
All-time PnL
$371.48
Win rate
76.0%
76 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$25.93
30d PnL
$85.74
30d trades
16
30d wins
2
12.5%
30d volume
$11.9k
Category edge
Economy
65.8%
-2.5pp
n=38
Politics
56.3%
+0.7pp
n=16
Science & Tech
100.0%
avg
n=8
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
69.1% (47 wins / 21 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 16 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 28-day series
$4.14k
-$173.44
Trading pattern
Economy-Leaningtwo-sidedsmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · Economy 41%
Why Economy-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Economy 41% of categorized trades — a lean toward Economy without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.40 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.74 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $316 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.88 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 74¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $315.95 · p90 $2.50k
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Wed 00:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 573.56 @ 0.250
Yes on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 617.801048 @ 0.382
Yes on Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
— 4838.709678 @ 0.310
Yes on Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
— 4942.018087 @ 0.506
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 639.853748 @ 0.547
Yes on No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
— +$55.74 · 1220.742828 @ 0.954
Yes on Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
— 1248.97 @ 0.941
Yes on Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
— 793.103449 @ 0.290
Yes on Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
— 795.202951 @ 0.542
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 488.548985 @ 0.781
Yes on Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 769.23 @ 0.510
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 1150.89875 @ 0.867
Yes on Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
— 232.639528 @ 0.860
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 287.5 @ 0.800
Yes on Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
— -$2.56 · 232.55 @ 0.989
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 452.38095 @ 0.840
No on Trump out as President before 2027?
— 356.89 @ 0.930
Yes on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 3.184712 @ 0.314
Yes on Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 3.846152 @ 0.260
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 1183.435293 @ 0.845
Yes on Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 930.232557 @ 0.860
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 1155.293792 @ 0.866
Yes on Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
— +$32.56 · 232.558135 @ 0.860
Yes on Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 769.230768 @ 0.650
Yes on Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
— 1.136358 @ 0.880
Yes on Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
— 586.48395 @ 0.853
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— -$4.03k · 8219.62 @ 0.510
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$0.51 · 1.35 @ 0.380
Yes on Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
— 1.63 @ 0.590
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— +$930.54 · 4628.46 @ 0.799
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— +$132.91 · 632.91139 @ 0.790
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— +$125.12 · 625.125 @ 0.800
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$1.12k · 3200.198635 @ 0.650
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— -$791.83 · 2934.92 @ 0.730
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$1.73k · 4955.700745 @ 0.652
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— -$939.18 · 3913.23 @ 0.760
Yes on Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
— +$0.95 · 5.952375 @ 0.840
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
— -$1.00 · 1.35135 @ 0.740
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
— +$225.81 · 3225.806442 @ 0.930
No on Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
— 114.82 @ 0.970
No on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
— +$31.21 · 520.2234 @ 0.940
No on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
— +$23.74 · 263.736255 @ 0.910
No on Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
— -$6.75 · 250.1 @ 0.973
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$28.68 · 63.727271 @ 0.550
Yes on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
— +$40.73 · 442.731271 @ 0.908
Yes on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$3.55 · 4.545453 @ 0.220
Yes on ECB rate hike in 2026?
— -$3.10 · 442.93 @ 0.993
No on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
— +$0.45 · 7.4468 @ 0.940
No on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
— +$44.44 · 444.44444 @ 0.900
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.