No on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
— 138 @ 0.975
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TH
The-Defect
All-time PnL
-$71.37
Win rate
78.9%
79 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$4.44
30d PnL
-$84.36
30d trades
100
30d wins
15
15.0%
30d volume
$5.25k
Category edge
Crypto
83.3%
+30.5pp
n=6
Economy
60.0%
-7.9pp
n=15
Other
22.2%
+2.2pp
n=9
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
54.1% (20 wins / 17 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 13 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 11-day series
$32.34
-$200.28
Trading pattern
World-Leaningtwo-sidedsmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · World 46%
Why World-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: World 46% of categorized trades — a lean toward World without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.38 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.75 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $18 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.49 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 75¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $17.58 · p90 $134.55
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Fri 12:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 9.09 @ 0.915
No on Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?
— 27.75 @ 0.860
No on Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
— 5 @ 0.560
No on Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
— 25.75 @ 0.580
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 277.75 @ 0.931
No on Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
— 13.75 @ 0.800
No on China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
— 26.78 @ 0.703
No on Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
— 5 @ 0.987
No on Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
— 83.25 @ 0.860
Yes on Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
— 5 @ 0.650
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?
— 151.94 @ 0.969
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?
— 0.49 @ 0.950
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 361.41 @ 0.900
Yes on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$15.00 · 125 @ 0.880
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
— 5 @ 0.790
No on Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
— 91.69 @ 0.860
No on Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
— 42 @ 0.870
No on Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
— 30 @ 0.740
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?
— 5 @ 0.909
No on Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
— 27.75 @ 0.780
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 5 @ 0.850
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 25 @ 0.730
Yes on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
— 12.9 @ 0.750
Yes on Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
— 9.36 @ 0.550
No on Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
— 7.73 @ 0.926
No on China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
— 60 @ 0.820
Yes on Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
— 12.49 @ 0.790
No on Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
— 7.37 @ 0.870
No on Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
— 16.07 @ 0.978
Yes on Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
— 11 @ 0.670
No on China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
— 5 @ 0.730
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— -$66.82 · 514 @ 0.870
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$8.75 · 62.5 @ 0.860
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$25.27 · 83.25 @ 0.696
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$7.77 · 27.75 @ 0.720
Yes on Fed rate hike in 2026?
— +$56.20 · 224.81 @ 0.750
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
— 10 @ 0.748
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$94.28 · 254.81 @ 0.370
No on Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
— 43.15 @ 0.740
No on LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?
— +$1.14 · 7.57 @ 0.850
No on China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
— 19.09 @ 0.720
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
— 158.1 @ 0.888
No on Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention (Night 1)?
— +$0.25 · 5 @ 0.950
No on Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9?
— +$0.27 · 24.46 @ 0.989
No on LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?
— +$0.65 · 5 @ 0.870
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
— 9.99 @ 0.940
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?
— -$0.78 · 19.43 @ 0.040
Yes on Will Hunter Biden launch a coin by September 30?
— +$0.10 · 9 @ 0.989
No on Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
— 125 @ 0.505
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.