Yes on US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?
— 1144.97 @ 0.959
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WU
wubddh
All-time PnL
-$8.28k
Win rate
90.9%
91 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$150.53
30d PnL
$187.89
30d trades
13
30d wins
7
53.8%
30d volume
$52.4k
Category edge
World
91.6%
+1.1pp
n=83
Science & Tech
100.0%
avg
n=5
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
92.7% (89 wins / 7 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 5 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 31-day series
$2.21k
-$9.02k
Trading pattern
World Specialistbuy-heavymid-sizefavorite-backercategory-focusedBuy-leaning · World 85%
Why World Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: World 85% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a World specialist.
Directional bias: +0.90 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.96 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $2,747 — Mid-sized typical stake.
Sizing consistency: CV 0.94 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 96¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $2.75k · p90 $9.94k
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Thu 10:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 1817.73 @ 0.980
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
— 429.27 @ 0.975
Yes on US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?
— 5000 @ 0.950
No on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$80.00 · 10000 @ 0.992
Yes on Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
— +$0.08 · 75 @ 0.999
No on Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9?
— +$1.57 · 237.95 @ 0.993
No on Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10?
— +$1.84 · 263 @ 0.993
Yes on Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
— +$1.48 · 1483.6 @ 0.999
Yes on Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
— +$2.93 · 2474 @ 0.999
No on Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$10.00 · 10000 @ 0.999
No on Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$40.00 · 10000 @ 0.996
No on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$50.00 · 10000 @ 0.995
Yes on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
— +$20.00 · 10000 @ 0.998
No on Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
— +$217.18 · 5000 @ 0.957
No on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
— +$2.35 · 784.47 @ 0.997
No on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
— +$77.28 · 7017.38 @ 0.989
No on Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
— +$84.60 · 2819.9 @ 0.970
No on Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
— +$151.10 · 5000 @ 0.970
No on Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
— +$50.00 · 10000 @ 0.995
Yes on Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
— +$95.84 · 8608.41 @ 0.989
Yes on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
— -$2.84k · 6049.85 @ 0.531
No on Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
— +$10.00 · 10000 @ 0.999
Yes on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
— +$225.09 · 6327.9 @ 0.964
Yes on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— +$0.69 · 347.23 @ 0.998
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$3.60 · 300 @ 0.988
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$60.00 · 5000 @ 0.988
Yes on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
— +$11.72 · 292.93 @ 0.960
Yes on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
— -$603.99 · 719.04 @ 0.840
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
— +$14.40 · 2400 @ 0.994
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
— +$14.50 · 2391.04 @ 0.994
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$1.01 · 46 @ 0.978
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$5.88 · 267.41 @ 0.978
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$66.09 · 2956.07 @ 0.978
No on Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
— +$2.28 · 1138.55 @ 0.998
Yes on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$82.31 · 1395 @ 0.941
Yes on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— +$72.98 · 525 @ 0.861
Yes on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
— +$65.62 · 1312.34 @ 0.950
No on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— +$120.30 · 487.06 @ 0.247
No on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— -$4.57k · 4645.9 @ 0.983
No on Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
— +$52.28 · 10000 @ 0.995
No on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
— +$54.63 · 7803.8 @ 0.993
No on Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
— +$125.63 · 10000 @ 0.987
No on US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
— -$2.77k · 2950 @ 0.940
Yes on US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
— +$180.00 · 6000 @ 0.970
Yes on US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
— +$118.71 · 3956.89 @ 0.970
No on US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
— +$40.00 · 5000 @ 0.992
No on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
— +$40.00 · 10000 @ 0.996
No on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— +$8.14k · 10000 @ 0.814
No on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
— -$9.59k · 10000 @ 0.959
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.