No on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 2080.43 @ 0.687
← leaderboard
LL
LlamaLoco0000
All-time PnL
$100.0k
Win rate
50.0%
50 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$8.26k
30d PnL
$99.1k
30d trades
100
30d wins
6
6.0%
30d volume
$199.7k
Category edge
World
100.0%
+45.8pp
n=6
Sports
38.5%
-19.6pp
n=13
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
54.5% (12 wins / 10 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 3 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 10-day series
$98.6k
$0.00
Trading pattern
World-Leaningbuy-heavymid-sizelongshot-hunterBuy-leaning · World 42%
Why World-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: World 42% of categorized trades — a lean toward World without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.76 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.26 — Enters at long-odds prices (<0.30) — a longshot-hunter pattern.
Typical position size: median $687 — Mid-sized typical stake.
Sizing consistency: CV 1.52 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 26¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $687.50 · p90 $5.68k
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Wed 02:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
— 2003.02 @ 0.310
Yes on Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
— 2298.06 @ 0.076
No on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 2695.93 @ 0.689
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 43593 @ 0.270
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 4634.16 @ 0.260
Yes on Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
— 848.65 @ 0.747
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 32622.81 @ 0.300
Yes on NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
— 448.56 @ 0.230
No on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 2652.01 @ 0.690
No on Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 4078.42 @ 0.684
Yes on Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
— 2694.4 @ 0.251
Yes on Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
— 35.37 @ 0.230
Yes on Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
— 132.17 @ 0.260
Yes on Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
— 1219.15 @ 0.078
Yes on China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
— 2278.8 @ 0.068
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 14604.4 @ 0.383
Yes on Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
— 5513.07 @ 0.290
Yes on Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 22265.79 @ 0.269
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 12549.96 @ 0.384
Yes on Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
— 3395.25 @ 0.073
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 7695.57 @ 0.380
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 733.18 @ 0.426
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 33180.33 @ 0.447
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 5397.4 @ 0.437
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
— 2405.02 @ 0.441
Yes on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
— 32 @ 0.160
Yes on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
— 8 @ 0.150
Yes on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
— 20.48 @ 0.140
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 51166.64 @ 0.260
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 1298.22 @ 0.260
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 767.07 @ 0.250
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 8022.67 @ 0.240
Yes on Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
— 4449.08 @ 0.064
Yes on Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 83.09 @ 0.316
Yes on Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 2069.23 @ 0.017
Yes on Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 2253.17 @ 0.010
Yes on Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 17946.44 @ 0.002
Spain on Spread: Spain (-2.5)
— -$281.11 · 3748.19 @ 0.075
Spain on Spread: Spain (-2.5)
— -$293.26 · 4045 @ 0.072
Spain on Spread: Spain (-1.5)
— -$1.01k · 5000 @ 0.203
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 27138.02 @ 0.260
Yes on Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
— 24720.75 @ 0.240
Yes on Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Fraudulent" during Speech to the Nation?
— +$822.83 · 2223.86 @ 0.630
Yes on Will Trump say "World Cup" during Speech to the Nation?
— -$54.00 · 200 @ 0.270
Yes on Will Trump say "Middle East" during Speech to the Nation?
— -$427.00 · 700 @ 0.610
Yes on Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
— 3387.56 @ 0.058
Yes on Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
— 689.47 @ 0.197
Yes on Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
— 905.32 @ 0.180
Yes on Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 365.48 @ 0.014
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.