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IC

icecesar

0x8f9e…6d32polymarket ↗last active 12m ago
All-time PnL
$221.18
Win rate
43.9%
44 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$2.26
30d PnL
$721.32
30d trades
47
30d wins
21
44.7%
30d volume
$13.6k
Category edge
Weather
43.3%
-6.7pp
n=30
Sports
44.1%
-6.3pp
n=68

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
43.9% (43 wins / 55 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 31 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 12-day series
$221.18
-$500.14
Trading pattern
Sports Specialisttwo-sidedsmall-sizecategory-focusedBalanced · Sports 70%
Why Sports Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Sports 70% of categorized trades≥60% concentrated in one category → a Sports specialist.
Directional bias: +0.20 (two-sided)Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.52Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $19Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.51 (varied)Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 52¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $18.57 · p90 $584.12
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Thu 17:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
SELL·12m ago·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
689.38 @ 0.999
BUY·45m ago·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
689.386684 @ 0.962
SELL·1h ago·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?
-$5.36 · 669.75 @ 0.992
BUY·3h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?
+$53.67 · 669.753547 @ 0.920
SELL·5h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?
-$5.61 · 623.11 @ 0.991
BUY·6h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?
+$93.47 · 623.117646 @ 0.850
BUY·23h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score
+$186.64 · 732.7364 @ 0.745
SELL·23h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?
+$52.51 · 238.69 @ 0.220
BUY·23h agoageing·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?
-$74.00 · 127.586204 @ 0.580
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?
-$60.00 · 111.11111 @ 0.540
SELL·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
+$15.12 · 116.27 @ 0.130
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
-$50.00 · 116.279068 @ 0.430
SELL·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?
-$91.87 · 765.55 @ 0.880
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?
+$84.21 · 765.550554 @ 0.890
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?
-$5.00 · 55.555554 @ 0.090
SELL·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?
+$5.00 · 27.77 @ 0.180
SELL·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
-$23.33 · 83.33 @ 0.720
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?
-$5.00 · 27.777776 @ 0.180
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?
-$5.00 · 50.505049 @ 0.099
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
+$68.33 · 83.333332 @ 0.180
SELL·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
+$653.01 · 786.76 @ 0.830
BUY·1d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
-$637.28 · 786.765431 @ 0.810
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?
-$13.29 · 189.87 @ 0.930
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?
+$56.75 · 67.56 @ 0.840
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?
-$50.00 · 67.567565 @ 0.740
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
-$36.95 · 43.47 @ 0.150
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
+$33.48 · 43.478259 @ 0.230
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?
+$39.87 · 189.873414 @ 0.790
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
+$316.73 · 410.95 @ 0.771
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
-$120.00 · 162.162161 @ 0.740
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
-$80.00 · 117.647056 @ 0.680
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
-$80.00 · 131.147538 @ 0.610
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will England win on 2026-06-17?
-$103.08 · 687.2 @ 0.850
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will England win on 2026-06-17?
+$151.19 · 687.205127 @ 0.780
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?
-$0.59 · 590.71 @ 0.999
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?
+$47.75 · 590.715962 @ 0.919
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?
-$148.02 · 328.94 @ 0.550
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?
+$203.95 · 328.947367 @ 0.380
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?
-$16.84 · 510.35 @ 0.967
BUY·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?
+$51.04 · 510.35555 @ 0.900
SELL·2d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
-$11.03 · 426.82 @ 0.974
BUY·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
+$76.83 · 426.829266 @ 0.820
SELL·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?
+$5.77 · 115.38 @ 0.050
BUY·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?
-$15.00 · 115.384614 @ 0.130
BUY·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?
+$44.49 · 404.494381 @ 0.890
SELL·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will France win on 2026-06-16?
-$3.71 · 371.16 @ 0.990
BUY·3d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
Yes on Will France win on 2026-06-16?
+$122.48 · 371.164178 @ 0.670
BUY·66d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
LOS on LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
-$23.79 · 44.053560000000004 @ 0.540
SELL·66d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?
+$0.81 · 16.02 @ 0.050
SELL·66d agostale·0x8f9e…6d32why? →
No on Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?
-$0.01 · 12.01 @ 0.999
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.