No on Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
— 4499.71 @ 0.243
← leaderboard
DA
da4c07
All-time PnL
$16.0k
Win rate
44.4%
44 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$443.64
30d PnL
$0.00
30d trades
2
30d wins
0
0.0%
30d volume
$3.04k
Category edge
Science & Tech
40.6%
-1.4pp
n=96
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
41.2% (40 wins / 57 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 17 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 40-day series
$17.2k
-$802.14
Trading pattern
Science & Tech Specialisttwo-sidedsmall-sizelongshot-huntercategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Science & Tech 99%
Why Science & Tech Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Science & Tech 99% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Science & Tech specialist.
Directional bias: +0.44 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.26 — Enters at long-odds prices (<0.30) — a longshot-hunter pattern.
Typical position size: median $50 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 3.70 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 26¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $49.99 · p90 $222.12
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sat 01:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
— 9624.564439 @ 0.202
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— +$96.54 · 2437.49 @ 0.040
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$81.32 · 1071 @ 0.076
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$14.05 · 144.17 @ 0.097
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$26.34 · 350 @ 0.075
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$0.01 · 0.28 @ 0.038
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$6.27 · 165 @ 0.038
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$22.98 · 115 @ 0.200
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$1.10 · 10 @ 0.110
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$38.70 · 222.39 @ 0.174
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$47.55 · 295 @ 0.161
No on Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$145.63 · 1789.498 @ 0.081
Yes on Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
— -$173.05 · 1436.77 @ 0.120
No on Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
— +$70.32 · 1087.73 @ 0.065
No on Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
— -$88.02 · 1000 @ 0.088
No on Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
— -$88.25 · 1083.28 @ 0.081
No on Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
— -$129.42 · 1661.85 @ 0.078
No on Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
— -$31.81 · 636.28 @ 0.050
Yes on Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
— -$4.81 · 80.166665 @ 0.060
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
— +$0.03 · 5.02 @ 0.994
Yes on Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
— +$67.06 · 709.9 @ 0.094
Yes on Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
— +$4.41 · 4409.58 @ 0.001
Yes on Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
— -$56.34 · 399.48 @ 0.141
Yes on Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
— -$10.00 · 4409.582 @ 0.002
No on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
— 1.190475 @ 0.840
Yes on Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?
— +$0.02 · 1.017235 @ 0.983
No on Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
— +$182.95 · 270.66 @ 0.324
Yes on Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
— +$1.30k · 1731.8 @ 0.252
Yes on Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
— +$103.72 · 487.86 @ 0.213
Yes on Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
— -$143.76 · 487.86 @ 0.295
Yes on Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$102.66 · 278.05 @ 0.369
Yes on Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$129.16 · 348.35 @ 0.371
No on Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
— -$1.87k · 8466.08 @ 0.779
Yes on Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— -$73.59 · 278.05 @ 0.265
No on Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$7.47k · 8466.083845 @ 0.118
Yes on Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— -$62.69 · 94.73 @ 0.338
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$8.07k · 9069.064 @ 0.110
Yes on Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$1.56k · 1749.73 @ 0.107
No on Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$832.59 · 1068.58 @ 0.221
Yes on Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— -$99.99 · 348.351817 @ 0.287
Yes on Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$70.04 · 117.02 @ 0.401
Yes on Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?
— +$101.52 · 151.500587 @ 0.330
Yes on Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— +$115.43 · 357.83 @ 0.323
Yes on Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— -$100.00 · 176.946313 @ 0.565
Yes on Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— -$100.00 · 180.892856 @ 0.553
Yes on Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— +$34.53 · 656.62 @ 0.053
Yes on Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— -$10.00 · 53.779472 @ 0.186
Yes on Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— -$32.93 · 61.78 @ 0.467
Yes on Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
— -$20.00 · 72.73857 @ 0.275
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.