No on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 177.67 @ 0.959
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CI
CiaoBambino
All-time PnL
$2.30k
Win rate
43.5%
36 of 82
Total trades
82
Avg PnL / trade
$48.26
30d PnL
$585.33
30d trades
24
30d wins
6
25.0%
30d volume
$5.92k
Category edge
Politics
40.0%
-33.5pp
n=5
Sports
34.7%
-14.4pp
n=49
World
50.0%
-13.0pp
n=18
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
38.7% (29 wins / 46 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 25 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 29-day series
$2.63k
$0.00
Trading pattern
Sports Specialisttwo-sidedsmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Sports 68%
Why Sports Specialisthigh confidence · 82 trades
Category focus: Sports 68% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Sports specialist.
Directional bias: +0.37 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.49 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $100 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.26 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 49¢ · 82 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $99.81 · p90 $500.00
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Thu 08:00 · 82 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 96.838334 @ 0.888
No on Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— 80.836267 @ 0.619
Yes on Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
— -$0.34 · 136.75 @ 0.998
Yes on Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
— +$96.75 · 136.752135 @ 0.292
France on France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
— -$350.00 · 603.448273 @ 0.580
Yes on Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
— -$2.04 · 816.32 @ 0.998
Yes on Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
— +$316.33 · 816.326529 @ 0.613
Novak Djokovic on Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
— +$5.49 · 500 @ 0.011
Novak Djokovic on Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
— -$100.00 · 500 @ 0.200
Arthur Fery on Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Alexander Zverev
— +$10.00 · 666.66 @ 0.015
Arthur Fery on Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Alexander Zverev
— -$100.00 · 666.666665 @ 0.150
Yes on Will France win on 2026-07-09?
— -$19.84 · 793.65 @ 0.975
Yes on Will France win on 2026-07-09?
— +$293.65 · 793.650791 @ 0.630
Arthur Fery on Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery
— -$0.54 · 543.34 @ 0.999
Arthur Fery on Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery
— +$43.47 · 543.34 @ 0.920
Colombia on Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
— -$100.00 · 178.571427 @ 0.560
Novak Djokovic on Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic
— -$2.04 · 204 @ 0.990
Novak Djokovic on Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic
— +$104.08 · 204.081631 @ 0.490
Yes on Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
— +$14.58 · 208.33 @ 0.070
Yes on Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
— -$50.00 · 208.333332 @ 0.240
Yes on Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
— -$0.53 · 526.31 @ 0.999
Yes on Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
— +$426.32 · 526.315788 @ 0.190
Yes on Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
— 1135.93 @ 0.128
Hubert Hurkacz on Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics
— -$19.84 · 33.066665 @ 0.600
Ben Shelton on Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton
— -$50.00 · 76.923074 @ 0.650
Moise Kouame on Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame
— -$0.07 · 65.78 @ 0.999
Moise Kouame on Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame
— +$15.79 · 65.78947 @ 0.760
Novak Djokovic on Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic
— -$50.00 · 75.757573 @ 0.660
Yes on Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
— 369.74 @ 0.270
No on US forces enter Iran by April 30?
— -$100.00 · 250 @ 0.400
Yes on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
— -$50.00 · 192.307691 @ 0.260
Yes on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
— +$157.25 · 250 @ 0.629
No on Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
— -$0.20 · 67.34 @ 0.997
No on Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
— +$7.34 · 67.340064 @ 0.891
Yes on Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?
— -$100.00 · 1250 @ 0.080
Yes on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
— -$35.31 · 176.56 @ 0.800
Yes on Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
— 369.742856 @ 0.270
Yes on Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
— 1135.93719 @ 0.088
Yes on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
— +$126.57 · 176.568619 @ 0.283
Yes on Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
— -$1.05 · 526.31 @ 0.998
Yes on Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
— +$426.32 · 526.315788 @ 0.190
Yes on US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
— -$120.75 · 215.63 @ 0.440
Yes on US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
— +$110.64 · 210.638332 @ 0.475
Yes on US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
— +$2.80 · 5 @ 0.440
No on Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
— -$0.10 · 100 @ 0.999
No on Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
— +$25.00 · 100 @ 0.750
Rinderknech on Australian Open Men's: Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur Rinderknech
— -$50.00 · 102.040815 @ 0.490
Bergs on Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs
— -$50.00 · 154.356968 @ 0.324
Humbert on Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert
— -$50.00 · 128.205127 @ 0.390
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.