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kaiserfranz44

0x542c…39bcpolymarket ↗last active 31m ago
All-time PnL
$178.54
Win rate
56.8%
57 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$49.59
30d PnL
-$2.18k
30d trades
100
30d wins
25
25.0%
30d volume
$216.9k
Category edge
Sports
43.8%
-3.7pp
n=89

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
43.8% (39 wins / 50 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 29 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 5-day series
$5.92k
-$1.49k
Trading pattern
Sports Specialisttwo-sidedmid-sizecategory-focusedBalanced · Sports 100%
Why Sports Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Sports 100% of categorized trades≥60% concentrated in one category → a Sports specialist.
Directional bias: +0.14 (two-sided)Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.65Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $2,307Mid-sized typical stake.
Sizing consistency: CV 0.64 (moderate)Stakes vary moderately across trades.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 65¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $2.31k · p90 $3.56k
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Sat 07:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
SELL·31m ago·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Score
3481.24 @ 0.999
SELL·54m ago·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score
3712.3 @ 0.999
SELL·6h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
-$3.55 · 3548.52 @ 0.999
SELL·6h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score
-$0.08 · 76.24 @ 0.999
SELL·6h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score
-$3.47k · 4001.41 @ 0.134
SELL·6h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score
-$7.60 · 10 @ 0.240
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Venezia FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
4233.333334 @ 0.570
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on CD Castellón vs. CD Tenerife: Both Teams to Score
4572.18 @ 0.528
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Holstein Kiel vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5
-$2.41k · 3872.496191 @ 0.623
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Toulouse FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5
4233.333334 @ 0.570
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Le Mans FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to Score
4160.344828 @ 0.580
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Udinese Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
-$2.41k · 4474.776482 @ 0.539
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Everton FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5
-$2.41k · 4387.272728 @ 0.550
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Nottingham Forest FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5
4468.518519 @ 0.540
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Score
3481.242856 @ 0.693
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5
-$2.41k · 3967.508197 @ 0.608
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Paris FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score
3846.846348 @ 0.627
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score
3712.307691 @ 0.650
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Newcastle United FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5
+$1.58k · 3994.244097 @ 0.604
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
+$1.08k · 3497.101448 @ 0.690
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
+$1.14k · 3548.529412 @ 0.680
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score
3670.521211 @ 0.657
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
+$1.36k · 3768.105691 @ 0.640
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score
+$1.67k · 4087.6515 @ 0.590
BUY·12h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
-$2.31k · 4132.142856 @ 0.560
BUY·13h agoageing·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
+$1.20k · 3611.66776 @ 0.668
SELL·3d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5
-$3.53 · 3533.5 @ 0.999
BUY·4d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5
+$1.20k · 3533.508788 @ 0.660
SELL·4d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score
-$39.03 · 3902.64 @ 0.990
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Villarreal CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score
-$35.98 · 3598.04 @ 0.990
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on FC Internazionale Milano vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5
-$3.44 · 3442.64 @ 0.999
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF: Both Teams to Score
-$3.70 · 3696.8 @ 0.999
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Gaziantep FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5
+$683.13 · 4035.35 @ 0.169
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5
+$1.50k · 3837.704917 @ 0.610
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Under on Torino FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5
+$1.10k · 3442.647059 @ 0.680
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Under on Rio Ave FC vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5
-$2.34k · 3080.263158 @ 0.760
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on Gaziantep FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5
-$2.34k · 4035.35 @ 0.580
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on SC Braga vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5
-$2.34k · 4076.234311 @ 0.574
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on FC Internazionale Milano vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5
+$1.10k · 3442.647059 @ 0.680
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF: Both Teams to Score
+$1.36k · 3696.802154 @ 0.633
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Villarreal CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score
+$1.26k · 3598.04 @ 0.650
BUY·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score
+$1.21k · 3055.187212 @ 0.603
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on FC Famalicão vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score
-$4.63 · 4630.08 @ 0.999
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Alexander Zverev on US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton
-$10.17 · 10169.49 @ 0.999
SELL·5d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score
-$4.26 · 4259.02 @ 0.999
SELL·6d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Over on SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5
+$448.98 · 4081.63 @ 0.110
SELL·6d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
-$35.94 · 3593.75 @ 0.990
SELL·6d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Hamarkameratene vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to Score
-$16.94 · 1873.67 @ 0.991
SELL·6d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score
-$2.13k · 2624.03 @ 0.190
SELL·6d agostale·0x542c…39bcwhy? →
Yes on Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score
-$1.21k · 1483.11 @ 0.186
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.