No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 151.37 @ 0.999
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PO
polichsehyun
All-time PnL
$422.25
Win rate
82.4%
82 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$24.84
30d PnL
$422.25
30d trades
100
30d wins
14
14.0%
30d volume
$6.43k
Category edge
Weather
70.0%
+9.4pp
n=90
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
70.0% (63 wins / 27 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 11 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 3-day series
$346.08
-$20.09
Trading pattern
Weather Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Weather 100%
Why Weather Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Weather 100% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Weather specialist.
Directional bias: +0.50 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.66 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $16 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.92 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 66¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $16.49 · p90 $151.22
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Wed 07:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?
— 391.81 @ 0.999
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 30 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 55 @ 0.960
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?
— 30 @ 0.730
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 38.37 @ 0.891
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 8 @ 0.890
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?
— 361.81 @ 0.846
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 5 @ 0.890
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
— 15 @ 0.880
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— -$0.36 · 181.82 @ 0.998
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 8?
— -$0.25 · 122.66 @ 0.998
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— -$1.18 · 59.1 @ 0.980
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— -$5.94 · 594.09 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— -$8.15 · 815.06 @ 0.990
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$2.88 · 66.29 @ 0.957
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$18.95 · 154.23 @ 0.877
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$11.06 · 74.26 @ 0.851
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$0.51 · 25.25 @ 0.980
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$1.90 · 63.38 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$15.26 · 259.04 @ 0.941
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$18.74 · 125.53 @ 0.851
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$31.33 · 172.18 @ 0.818
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$1.30 · 5 @ 0.740
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$1.20 · 5 @ 0.760
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$8.64 · 46.31 @ 0.814
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— +$12.98 · 92.44 @ 0.860
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— +$2.00 · 11.81 @ 0.831
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$3.98 · 132.67 @ 0.970
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$12.49 · 177.97 @ 0.930
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$6.72 · 82.44 @ 0.918
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$17.84 · 150.84 @ 0.882
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— +$4.87 · 16.71 @ 0.709
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— +$17.66 · 55.86 @ 0.684
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$2.45 · 5 @ 0.510
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$2.35 · 5 @ 0.530
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
— +$3.40 · 5 @ 0.320
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$15.05 · 25 @ 0.398
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
— +$3.50 · 5 @ 0.300
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$3.10 · 5 @ 0.380
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$3.45 · 5 @ 0.310
No on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
— +$39.16 · 54.39 @ 0.280
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
— +$35.15 · 49.51 @ 0.290
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
— +$2.40 · 8 @ 0.300
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
— +$2.52 · 7 @ 0.360
No on Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?
— +$5.03 · 15.01 @ 0.335
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
— -$10.50 · 25 @ 0.420
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
— -$14.27 · 33 @ 0.432
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
— -$3.63 · 8 @ 0.453
No on Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?
— -$5.10 · 15.01 @ 0.340
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.