No on Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 500 @ 0.880
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0X
0x3B8E23ce6A60E18114D42901eB847Bd8286172Fe-1722419940426
All-time PnL
-$282.54
Win rate
40.0%
12 of 30
Total trades
30
Avg PnL / trade
-$18.84
30d PnL
$0.00
30d trades
1
30d wins
0
0.0%
30d volume
$440.00
Category edge
World
59.1%
-13.6pp
n=22
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
50.0% (13 wins / 13 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 7 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 10-day series
$865.64
-$453.84
Trading pattern
World Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · World 83%
Why World Specialisthigh confidence · 30 trades
Category focus: World 83% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a World specialist.
Directional bias: +0.53 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.49 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $250 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.72 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 49¢ · 30 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $250.00 · p90 $402.15
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 12:00 · 30 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
— +$192.73 · 446 @ 0.432
Yes on Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
— -$20.00 · 200 @ 0.100
Yes on Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
— -$20.00 · 181.81818 @ 0.110
Yes on Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
— -$375.00 · 1171.875 @ 0.320
Yes on Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
— -$100.00 · 312.5 @ 0.320
No on US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
— +$226.85 · 462.96 @ 0.490
No on US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
— -$178.57 · 892.85 @ 0.800
Yes on Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
— -$250.00 · 446.42857 @ 0.560
No on US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
— -$250.00 · 357.142856 @ 0.700
No on Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?
— +$109.05 · 359.049717 @ 0.696
No on Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?
— +$109.75 · 359.74857 @ 0.695
Yes on Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
— +$163.63 · 454.54 @ 0.360
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 864.28 @ 0.320
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
— +$104.46 · 769.17 @ 0.136
Yes on Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
— -$250.00 · 454.545453 @ 0.550
No on US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
— -$250.00 · 462.96296 @ 0.540
No on Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
— -$336.14 · 1018.61 @ 0.670
Yes on Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
— +$115.51 · 365.512596 @ 0.684
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
— -$100.00 · 641.571973 @ 0.156
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 428.571427 @ 0.350
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
— 285.714284 @ 0.350
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
— -$15.00 · 100 @ 0.150
Yes on Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
— -$4.04 · 27.6 @ 0.146
No on Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
— +$15.90 · 100 @ 0.841
No on US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
— +$196.43 · 446.42857 @ 0.560
No on Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
— +$153.23 · 403.225805 @ 0.620
No on US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
— +$196.43 · 446.42857 @ 0.560
No on Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
— +$88.28 · 490.426828 @ 0.820
No on Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
— +$215.38 · 615.384614 @ 0.650
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.