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HE

Heisenbug

0x3804…ef9epolymarket ↗last active 16m ago
All-time PnL
$186.78
Win rate
65.3%
65 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$3.35
30d PnL
$163.95
30d trades
100
30d wins
32
32.0%
30d volume
$4.24k
Category edge
Crypto
59.4%
+3.8pp
n=96

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
59.4% (57 wins / 39 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 15 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 3-day series
$163.95
$0.00
Trading pattern
Crypto Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Crypto 98%
Why Crypto Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Crypto 98% of categorized trades≥60% concentrated in one category → a Crypto specialist.
Directional bias: +0.56 (buy-heavy)Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.60Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $19Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.45 (varied)Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 60¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $19.48 · p90 $121.00
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Mon 07:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
SELL·16m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
274.98 @ 0.530
BUY·17m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
274.984887 @ 0.440
BUY·19m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
-$63.10 · 70.34433 @ 0.897
SELL·20m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
+$177.89 · 384.04 @ 0.463
BUY·22m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
-$9.96 · 11.17333 @ 0.891
BUY·22m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
-$121.00 · 384.045 @ 0.315
BUY·23m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
+$1.27 · 11.234381 @ 0.887
BUY·24m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
-$9.96 · 10.709671 @ 0.930
BUY·30m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
+$7.80 · 70.898875 @ 0.890
BUY·35m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
+$7.36 · 70.45511 @ 0.896
BUY·35m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
+$1.08 · 11.043733 @ 0.902
BUY·36m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
+$7.01 · 70.11111 @ 0.900
BUY·41m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
-$9.96 · 11.066665 @ 0.900
BUY·46m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
+$1.11 · 11.066665 @ 0.900
BUY·49m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
-$1.00 · 33.333332 @ 0.030
BUY·50m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
+$1.11 · 11.06666 @ 0.900
SELL·50m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
-$45.38 · 252.08 @ 0.820
BUY·52m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
+$131.08 · 252.083332 @ 0.480
BUY·55m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
+$1.23 · 11.191009 @ 0.890
BUY·55m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
+$6.81 · 69.908122 @ 0.903
BUY·56m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
-$121.00 · 418.593332 @ 0.289
SELL·58m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
+$152.06 · 232.69 @ 0.653
BUY·58m ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
-$121.00 · 232.692306 @ 0.520
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
-$9.82 · 70.11 @ 0.860
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
+$7.01 · 70.11111 @ 0.900
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
-$21.00 · 233.333332 @ 0.090
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
+$1.23 · 11.191009 @ 0.890
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
-$31.00 · 193.75 @ 0.160
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
+$0.99 · 10.945053 @ 0.910
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
+$6.24 · 69.340655 @ 0.910
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
-$48.19 · 168.07 @ 0.713
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
+$57.08 · 168.076118 @ 0.660
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
+$1.23 · 11.191009 @ 0.890
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
-$2.80 · 71.72 @ 0.961
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
+$8.62 · 71.7191 @ 0.880
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
-$11.82 · 62.19 @ 0.810
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
+$21.20 · 62.196967 @ 0.659
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
-$72.06 · 124.24 @ 0.420
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
+$83.24 · 124.242423 @ 0.330
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
-$27.13 · 77.5 @ 0.650
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
+$46.50 · 77.5 @ 0.400
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
-$11.00 · 67.157 @ 0.164
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
+$9.38 · 72.48 @ 0.871
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
+$30.21 · 91.3 @ 0.331
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
-$21.00 · 91.304346 @ 0.230
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
+$30.01 · 84 @ 0.357
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
-$21.00 · 84 @ 0.250
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
-$121.77 · 242 @ 0.497
SELL·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
+$152.61 · 217.01 @ 0.703
BUY·1h ago·0x3804…ef9ewhy? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
-$9.96 · 11.191009 @ 0.890
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.