No on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
— 201.207244 @ 0.994
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BC
bc56rtg
All-time PnL
$194.33
Win rate
98.1%
58 of 59
Total trades
59
Avg PnL / trade
$3.74
30d PnL
$1.65
30d trades
3
30d wins
1
33.3%
30d volume
$552.00
Category edge
Crypto
100.0%
+49.6pp
n=19
World
90.9%
+40.0pp
n=11
Politics
80.0%
+36.3pp
n=10
Economy
100.0%
+19.0pp
n=5
Science & Tech
100.0%
+16.7pp
n=9
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
94.7% (54 wins / 3 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 2 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 34-day series
$194.33
$0.00
Trading pattern
Diversifiedbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backerBuy-leaning · Crypto 32%
Why Diversifiedhigh confidence · 59 trades
Category focus: Crypto 32% of categorized trades — spread across many categories (<35% in any one) → diversified.
Directional bias: +0.93 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.94 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $160 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.50 (consistent) — Stakes are uniform — systematic, flat-sizing behaviour.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 94¢ · 59 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $160.00 · p90 $266.00
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Fri 13:00 · 59 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
— +$1.65 · 183.652777 @ 0.991
No on Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
— 171.543888 @ 0.991
No on Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
— +$1.91 · 211.907111 @ 0.991
No on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
— +$1.45 · 145.454544 @ 0.990
No on Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
— +$1.27 · 181.268881 @ 0.993
No on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
— +$1.82 · 181.8181 @ 0.990
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
— +$1.63 · 180.625629 @ 0.991
Yes on SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
— +$5.84 · 176.835545 @ 0.967
No on Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
— +$6.84 · 166.840439 @ 0.959
No on Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
— +$2.44 · 162.436533 @ 0.985
Yes on Will Putin visit China by May 31?
— +$2.40 · 182.396076 @ 0.987
Yes on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
— +$3.67 · 203.665986 @ 0.982
No on Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
— +$2.34 · 146.154137 @ 0.984
No on Will Solana dip to $60 in March?
— +$0.90 · 180.9044 @ 0.995
Yes on Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?
— +$1.33 · 181.331285 @ 0.993
No on Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
— +$1.82 · 151.821833 @ 0.988
Yes on MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 3-9?
— +$1.52 · 151.5151 @ 0.990
No on US forces enter Iran by March 7?
— +$3.24 · 180.244388 @ 0.982
Yes on Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
— +$8.31 · 148.305083 @ 0.944
No on Will BNB dip to $300 in February?
— +$1.78 · 172.7828 @ 0.990
No on US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?
— +$0.78 · 130.784666 @ 0.994
Yes on Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?
— +$6.64 · 306.64419 @ 0.978
No on Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4?
— +$1.07 · 281.065415 @ 0.996
Yes on Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
— +$1.58 · 17.582411 @ 0.910
No on Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026?
— +$1.16 · 232.160803 @ 0.995
No on Ethereum all time high by December 31?
— +$0.67 · 66.666665 @ 0.990
No on Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
— +$4.98 · 304.9825 @ 0.984
No on Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
— -$0.61 · 201.81 @ 0.997
No on Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
— +$1.82 · 201.816333 @ 0.991
Yes on Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?
— +$0.77 · 95.766125 @ 0.992
No on Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China?
— -$0.10 · 50.1 @ 0.998
No on Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?
— +$0.49 · 246.4925 @ 0.998
Yes on Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 16?
— +$2.34 · 234.3434 @ 0.990
No on Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
— +$1.68 · 111.675125 @ 0.985
No on Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China?
— +$0.10 · 50.1 @ 0.998
No on Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 8–14?
— +$0.25 · 124.248 @ 0.998
No on Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 15?
— +$0.18 · 183.183 @ 0.999
Yes on Ethereum above $4000 on August 15?
— +$0.10 · 100.1 @ 0.999
No on Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
— +$0.39 · 130.391 @ 0.997
No on Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 16?
— +$0.68 · 155.677428 @ 0.996
No on Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?
— +$1.34 · 267.336682 @ 0.995
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12?
— +$0.51 · 255.511 @ 0.998
No on Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31?
— +$0.20 · 50.20075 @ 0.996
No on Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025?
— +$0.39 · 130.391 @ 0.997
No on Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?
— +$0.48 · 80.482833 @ 0.994
No on Will SOL flip ETH before May?
— +$0.14 · 68.136 @ 0.998
No on Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
— +$0.08 · 80.08 @ 0.999
No on Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?
— +$0.13 · 130.13 @ 0.999
No on Will Solana hit $300 in March?
— +$1.77 · 267.771 @ 0.993
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.