Yes on Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?
— 182.926827 @ 0.820
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25
0x2503…9be5
All-time PnL
-$203.10
Win rate
39.3%
39 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$2.97
30d PnL
-$66.27
30d trades
91
30d wins
9
9.9%
30d volume
$2.64k
Category edge
Politics
41.7%
-4.5pp
n=12
World
52.9%
avg
n=17
Economy
37.5%
avg
n=8
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
45.7% (21 wins / 25 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 24 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 17-day series
$43.65
-$89.63
Trading pattern
World-Leaningtwo-sidedsmall-sizeBalanced · World 49%
Why World-Leaninghigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: World 49% of categorized trades — a lean toward World without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.16 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.53 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $23 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.97 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 53¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $23.27 · p90 $50.00
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Tue 19:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
— 30 @ 0.330
Yes on Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
— 14.2 @ 0.144
No on Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
— 22.72 @ 0.580
No on Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
— 51 @ 0.970
Yes on Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 51.11 @ 0.480
No on US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
— 76.923077 @ 0.910
No on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
— 5 @ 0.330
No on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
— 45 @ 0.190
Yes on Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
— 41.47 @ 0.920
Yes on Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
— -$0.08 · 41.09 @ 0.998
Yes on Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 60 @ 0.550
Yes on Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
— -$3.20 · 40 @ 0.920
No on Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
— -$7.46 · 67.84 @ 0.890
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— -$0.50 · 27.86 @ 0.982
No on Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
— -$16.80 · 140 @ 0.880
Yes on Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
— 12.98 @ 0.740
Yes on Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
— 21.12 @ 0.640
Yes on Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
— 25.12 @ 0.150
Yes on Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
— 99.88 @ 0.160
Yes on Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
— 67.56 @ 0.220
Yes on Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
— 49.91 @ 0.300
Yes on Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
— 49.91 @ 0.310
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— -$4.25 · 25 @ 0.830
No on Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
— -$42.95 · 200 @ 0.785
Yes on Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
— +$4.41 · 29.41176 @ 0.850
No on Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— +$0.15 · 51.51 @ 0.003
Yes on Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— +$0.38 · 125.72 @ 0.003
Yes on Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
— 125 @ 0.240
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— -$10.45 · 55 @ 0.810
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— +$3.53 · 23.529406 @ 0.850
Yes on Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
— 27.77777 @ 0.900
Yes on Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 43.209877 @ 0.810
Yes on Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— -$40.00 · 51.948052 @ 0.770
No on Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
— 32.25 @ 0.160
Yes on Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?
— 18.18 @ 0.559
Yes on Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
— 79 @ 0.410
Yes on Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?
— 19 @ 0.722
Yes on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
— +$8.19 · 48.19277 @ 0.830
Yes on Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— -$23.85 · 29.44 @ 0.190
Yes on Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
— 67.901231 @ 0.810
No on Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
— +$19.94 · 104.938268 @ 0.810
No on Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
— +$21.11 · 111.11111 @ 0.810
Yes on Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?
— 58.44 @ 0.710
Yes on Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?
— 37.18 @ 0.743
Yes on Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
— -$29.55 · 40 @ 0.261
No on Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
— -$10.67 · 24.26 @ 0.560
No on Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
— +$7.28 · 24.26 @ 0.700
Yes on Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?
— 58.441559 @ 0.770
No on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
— 80 @ 0.260
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.