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AR

Arociaccio

0x2301…78cfpolymarket ↗last active 19m ago
All-time PnL
$8.15k
Win rate
40.0%
40 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$136.81
30d PnL
$5.10k
30d trades
35
30d wins
4
11.4%
30d volume
$22.6k
Category edge
Sports
39.7%
-7.5pp
n=63

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
39.7% (25 wins / 38 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 18 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 26-day series
$2.50k
-$83.45
Trading pattern
Sports Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Sports 100%
Why Sports Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Sports 100% of categorized trades≥60% concentrated in one category → a Sports specialist.
Directional bias: +0.62 (buy-heavy)Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.32Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $112Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.89 (varied)Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 32¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $111.89 · p90 $683.68
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Wed 19:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
BUY·19m ago·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-20?
4854.166667 @ 0.600
BUY·2h agoageing·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-09-20?
1458.333334 @ 0.480
BUY·1d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19? AND Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-09-19? AND Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-19? AND Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-09-19?
4555.098346 @ 0.063
BUY·1d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19? AND Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-09-19? AND Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-19?
4893.86229 @ 0.196
BUY·1d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-09-19? AND Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19? AND Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-09-19? AND Will Cardiff City FC win on 2026-09-19? AND Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-19?
4036.64959 @ 0.176
BUY·1d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Elche CF: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona O/U 1.5 AND Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-09-18?
928.30913 @ 0.260
BUY·1d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-09-18?
-$400.00 · 784.313726 @ 0.510
BUY·2d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. AFC Bournemouth: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5 AND FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: RU Saint-Gilloise O/U 2.5 AND Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-09-17?
844.130399 @ 0.228
BUY·2d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-09-17? AND Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-09-17?
673.571524 @ 0.142
BUY·2d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on PFK Levski Sofia vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 AND OFI vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: OFI O/U 1.5 AND Real Betis Balompié vs. Getafe CF: Getafe CF O/U 0.5
1142.753794 @ 0.305
SELL·3d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 0.5 AND Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-09? AND Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16?
4160.324297 @ 0.992
SELL·3d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-16?
3424.188511 @ 0.721
BUY·3d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-16?
3424.188512 @ 0.140
BUY·3d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 0.5 AND Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-09? AND Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16?
4160.324297 @ 0.023
BUY·3d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-09? AND Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16?
2655.655901 @ 0.108
BUY·4d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on AE Kifisiás vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 0.5 AND Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-16? AND Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16?
2286.341482 @ 0.042
BUY·4d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-15? AND Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15? AND Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?
1898.361905 @ 0.050
BUY·5d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-14? AND Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14? AND Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-14?
857.534632 @ 0.112
BUY·6d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 AND Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-13? AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13?
2648.669642 @ 0.018
BUY·7d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 AND Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-13?
2182.738964 @ 0.110
BUY·7d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-09-13? AND Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-09-12? AND Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-09-12?
1573.560236 @ 0.245
BUY·7d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 AND Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-09-12?
1118.8572 @ 0.134
BUY·7d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-12?
-$150.00 · 714.285715 @ 0.210
SELL·8d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-12?
-$379.21 · 2127.89 @ 0.822
BUY·8d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-12?
-$300.00 · 916.001525 @ 0.328
BUY·8d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-12?
+$1.73k · 2127.894737 @ 0.188
SELL·10d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-09-09?
+$62.50 · 1041.66 @ 0.060
BUY·10d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?
+$313.85 · 653.846154 @ 0.520
BUY·10d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-09-09?
-$250.00 · 1041.666667 @ 0.240
BUY·10d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? AND Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-09-09?
1128.952878 @ 0.150
SELL·14d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?
-$389.47 · 526.31 @ 0.260
BUY·14d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?
+$226.32 · 526.315788 @ 0.570
SELL·14d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-05?
-$217.24 · 2172.38 @ 0.900
BUY·15d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-05?
+$1.22k · 2172.386362 @ 0.440
BUY·21d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?
-$398.20 · 948.095237 @ 0.420
BUY·63d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will France vs. England end in a draw?
-$49.00 · 278.988764 @ 0.176
BUY·67d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
-$15.00 · 150 @ 0.100
BUY·67d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?
-$10.00 · 111.11111 @ 0.090
SELL·72d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will France win on 2026-07-09?
-$18.31 · 488.16 @ 0.963
BUY·72d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will France win on 2026-07-09?
+$189.16 · 488.163264 @ 0.612
BUY·77d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Under on Paraguay vs. France: O/U 0.5
-$59.00 · 998.1 @ 0.059
SELL·78d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
-$84.50 · 768.18 @ 0.890
BUY·78d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
+$683.68 · 768.181817 @ 0.110
SELL·78d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
-$7.71 · 771.33 @ 0.990
BUY·78d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
+$493.65 · 771.333332 @ 0.360
BUY·80d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
-$400.00 · 833.333332 @ 0.480
BUY·81d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
on Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
1027.522935 @ 0.109
SELL·81d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
+$111.79 · 621.05 @ 0.180
BUY·81d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
Yes on Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
-$118.00 · 621.05263 @ 0.190
BUY·81d agostale·0x2301…78cfwhy? →
No on Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
-$500.00 · 877.192981 @ 0.570
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.