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0x159B38Eac2636bf732bdd17aB5Ed40B9B0d047d8-1782539699739

0x159b…47d8polymarket ↗last active 14m ago
All-time PnL
-$28.57
Win rate
47.4%
47 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$0.35
30d PnL
$6.58
30d trades
100
30d wins
9
9.0%
30d volume
$1.69k
Category edge
Crypto
28.7%
-30.3pp
n=94

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
28.7% (27 wins / 67 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 11 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 4-day series
$6.48
-$36.63
Trading pattern
Crypto Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Crypto 100%
Why Crypto Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Crypto 100% of categorized trades≥60% concentrated in one category → a Crypto specialist.
Directional bias: +0.76 (buy-heavy)Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.45Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $2Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 2.09 (varied)Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 45¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $2.00 · p90 $25.00
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Thu 17:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
BUY·14m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
154.376922 @ 0.648
SELL·14m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
341.26 @ 0.190
BUY·15m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
119.047618 @ 0.210
BUY·16m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
83.333332 @ 0.300
BUY·16m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
69.444443 @ 0.360
BUY·16m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
69.444443 @ 0.360
SELL·18m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
-$4.88 · 121.95 @ 0.960
BUY·19m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
+$21.95 · 121.951216 @ 0.820
SELL·19m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
+$63.14 · 274.5 @ 0.230
BUY·20m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
-$25.00 · 147.058822 @ 0.170
BUY·20m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
-$25.00 · 127.45 @ 0.196
SELL·25m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
+$40.99 · 221.44 @ 0.185
BUY·26m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$25.00 · 78.125 @ 0.320
BUY·26m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$25.00 · 96.153845 @ 0.260
BUY·26m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$25.00 · 47.16981 @ 0.530
SELL·28m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
-$3.33 · 83.35 @ 0.960
BUY·29m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
+$15.98 · 40.977418 @ 0.610
BUY·29m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
+$17.37 · 42.37288 @ 0.590
SELL·31m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
-$2.94 · 293.5 @ 0.990
BUY·34m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$16.67 · 41.666665 @ 0.600
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$23.08 · 48.076922 @ 0.520
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$13.46 · 38.461537 @ 0.650
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$15.98 · 40.983605 @ 0.610
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$16.67 · 41.666665 @ 0.600
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$16.67 · 41.666665 @ 0.600
BUY·35m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
+$15.98 · 40.983605 @ 0.610
BUY·40m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
-$25.00 · 192.307691 @ 0.130
BUY·40m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
-$25.00 · 96.153845 @ 0.260
BUY·41m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
-$25.00 · 65.789472 @ 0.380
BUY·41m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
-$25.00 · 69.444443 @ 0.360
SELL·43m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
+$17.89 · 131.57 @ 0.136
BUY·44m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
-$25.00 · 131.578946 @ 0.190
SELL·46m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
-$0.03 · 33.46 @ 0.999
BUY·47m ago·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
+$8.47 · 33.466664 @ 0.747
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4.761903 @ 0.210
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4.761903 @ 0.210
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 3.846152 @ 0.260
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 3.846152 @ 0.260
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4 @ 0.250
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4 @ 0.250
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4.166665 @ 0.240
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4.166665 @ 0.240
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
-$1.00 · 4.166665 @ 0.240
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
-$1.00 · 3.846152 @ 0.260
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
-$2.00 · 4.688371 @ 0.427
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
+$1.51 · 3.508769 @ 0.570
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
-$2.00 · 5.263156 @ 0.380
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
-$2.00 · 8.333332 @ 0.240
SELL·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
+$1.70 · 15.47 @ 0.110
BUY·9d agostale·0x159b…47d8why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
-$2.00 · 8.333332 @ 0.240
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.