No on Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
— 490 @ 0.989
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HA
Hans323
All-time PnL
$41.10
Win rate
91.3%
91 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$0.60
30d PnL
$41.10
30d trades
100
30d wins
63
63.0%
30d volume
$15.4k
Category edge
Sports
93.3%
+35.7pp
n=15
Politics
40.0%
+6.1pp
n=5
Weather
86.7%
-1.2pp
n=60
Pop Culture
100.0%
avg
n=5
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
85.9% (73 wins / 12 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 3 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 12-day series
$17.18
-$111.56
Trading pattern
Weather Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backercategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Weather 64%
Why Weather Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Weather 64% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Weather specialist.
Directional bias: +0.74 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.84 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $30 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 3.37 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 84¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $30.25 · p90 $339.63
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Wed 20:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 20?
— +$0.55 · 549.21 @ 0.999
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 20?
— +$2.00 · 1000 @ 0.998
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20?
— 54.73 @ 0.999
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 20?
— +$1.20 · 600 @ 0.998
No on Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
— 10.93 @ 0.940
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on September 18?
— 1000 @ 0.001
Yes on Will it rain in Seattle, WA on September 16?
— -$5.61 · 10.5 @ 0.534
Yes on Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 15?
— +$1.00 · 100 @ 0.990
Yes on Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
— 20 @ 0.760
Yes on Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on September 12?
— +$2.00 · 200 @ 0.990
Yes on Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
— -$27.85 · 132.61 @ 0.790
No on Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?
— 150 @ 0.850
No on Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?
— 9.75 @ 0.700
No on Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on September 10?
— +$0.02 · 1.91 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in Denver, CO on September 10?
— +$0.02 · 1.91 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 10?
— +$0.17 · 16.84 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on September 10?
— +$0.02 · 1.91 @ 0.990
Yes on Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
— +$5.07 · 37.67 @ 0.865
Yes on Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
— +$25.74 · 286 @ 0.910
Yes on Will it rain in New York, NY on September 10?
— +$0.77 · 77 @ 0.990
Yes on Will it rain in Boston, MA on September 10?
— +$1.23 · 68.2 @ 0.982
No on Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
— 1067 @ 0.180
Yes on Will it rain in Houston, TX on September 9?
— +$0.39 · 38.89 @ 0.990
Yes on Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on September 8?
— +$1.06 · 106 @ 0.990
No on Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
— 105 @ 0.780
Yes on Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?
— -$111.71 · 577 @ 0.806
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 8?
— +$5.89 · 589.2 @ 0.990
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 8?
— +$0.16 · 8 @ 0.980
No on Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 8?
— +$0.20 · 9.99 @ 0.980
No on Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
— 79 @ 0.781
Yes on Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
— -$28.85 · 341.29 @ 0.915
Yes on Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
— +$4.51 · 43.2 @ 0.896
Yes on Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 4?
— +$33.20 · 60 @ 0.553
Yes on Will "The Secret Woman" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
— +$3.10 · 31 @ 0.900
Yes on Will it rain in Miami, FL on September 4?
— +$1.07 · 57.49 @ 0.981
Yes on Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
— +$4.05 · 45 @ 0.910
No on Will Kapten win the GeoGuessr World Championship 2026?
— +$0.05 · 5 @ 0.990
Yes on Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on September 4?
— +$1.22 · 122 @ 0.990
Yes on Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on September 4?
— -$15.30 · 30 @ 0.490
Yes on Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 4?
— +$3.71 · 370.54 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 4?
— +$4.30 · 343.93 @ 0.988
No on Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
— +$0.09 · 87.5 @ 0.999
Yes on Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
— +$0.80 · 160.12 @ 0.995
No on Will it rain in Washington, DC on September 4?
— +$23.40 · 25.22 @ 0.072
No on Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on September 3?
— +$0.08 · 8 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 3?
— +$0.20 · 20 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in Dallas, TX on September 3?
— +$0.08 · 8 @ 0.990
No on Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on September 3?
— +$1.23 · 62.97 @ 0.980
No on Will Malfunctionn win the GeoGuessr World Championship 2026?
— +$0.10 · 10 @ 0.990
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.