No on Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 20?
— 200.03 @ 0.997
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HA
Halfa-Beta
All-time PnL
-$11.27
Win rate
7.7%
8 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$0.87
30d PnL
-$11.27
30d trades
100
30d wins
1
1.0%
30d volume
$7.77k
Category edge
Weather
11.1%
-55.6pp
n=9
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
7.7% (1 wins / 12 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 3 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 1-day series
Not enough data to chart yet.
Trading pattern
Weather Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizefavorite-backercategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Weather 96%
Why Weather Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Weather 96% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Weather specialist.
Directional bias: +0.68 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.97 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $55 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.02 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 97¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $54.61 · p90 $196.20
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Fri 08:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
No on Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 20?
— 0.54 @ 0.996
No on Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June 19?
— 26.03 @ 0.999
No on Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 20?
— 200.05 @ 0.995
No on Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20?
— 100 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 20?
— 68.94 @ 0.995
No on Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 19?
— 74.01 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21?
— 20 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or below on June 19?
— 135.62 @ 0.999
No on Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 19?
— 38.64 @ 0.998
No on Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 20?
— 87 @ 0.996
No on Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 19?
— 19.24 @ 0.999
No on Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 21?
— 150.03 @ 0.996
No on Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21?
— 5 @ 0.995
No on Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21?
— 55 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or below on June 21?
— 50.02 @ 0.989
No on Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 21?
— 100 @ 0.996
No on Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 20?
— 61.47 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21?
— 20 @ 0.990
Yes on Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19?
— 22.5 @ 0.982
No on Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19?
— 15 @ 0.996
No on Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19?
— 93.67 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21?
— 107.3 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 21?
— 117.3 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21?
— 200.03 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 21?
— 3.11 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?
— 400.08 @ 0.996
No on Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 21?
— 86.96 @ 0.997
No on Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21?
— 192 @ 0.989
No on Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on June 21?
— 68.78 @ 0.995
No on Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 21?
— 20 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 21?
— 5 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 21?
— 262.9 @ 0.988
No on Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 21?
— 61.98 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21?
— 100 @ 0.997
No on Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 21?
— 10 @ 0.990
No on Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21?
— 50 @ 0.994
No on Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 20?
— 74.06 @ 0.997
No on Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 21?
— 13.06 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 21?
— 15 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 21?
— 100 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 20?
— 85 @ 0.996
No on Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19?
— 67.06 @ 0.980
No on Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19?
— 200.2 @ 0.980
Yes on Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?
— 30.59 @ 0.850
No on Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19?
— 5 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 20?
— 20 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 20?
— 35 @ 0.990
No on Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on June 20?
— 77.06 @ 0.997
No on Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 20?
— 135 @ 0.990
Integrity indicators
No anomalies detected for this trader.
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.