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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Post-mortem
Smart money was split
2 of 6 tracked traders on Yes · 4 on other outcomes
Cohort P&L on this market
-$30.6k
Outcomes
Yes
100¢
No
23¢
Tiebreaker · cohort is split
YES camp: 46% hit rate · World · 2 traders
NO camp: 75% hit rate · Crypto · 2 traders
Based on each camp's full resolved-trade record. Not financial advice.
How they were positioned (6)
See full smart-money consensus →net lean26% YES leanYES notional$92.9kNO notional$54.5ktraders3